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Australian governments– local, state, even federal- are gradually becoming aware of the seriousness of the deficiencies in infrastructure and have tried to raise their investment levels. However, our calculations show that there is scope for them to redouble their efforts.
NIEIR modeling indicates that delays by industry to adapt their business models to global and knowledge economy bench marks, and this includes education (and many other sectors), will have serious consequences for the economy. We should all take the opportunities from the knowledge economy very seriously.
The current mining boom is but the latest in a series of bursts of resource-related activity in Australia. The current attitude seems to be that the boom should be passively accepted as well-deserved good fortune. However, recent experience indicates otherwise. While unquestionably resource booms bring prosperity to the mining industry, as a side-effect they can easily generate recession in non-mining industries, possibly even to the extent that the overall benefit of the boom is questionable. The possibilities are outlined in the present paper.
As outlined in the State of the Regions report for 2012–2013, the current national resource boom is patchily distributed, with some regions reporting frenetic activity and others depressed as a side-effect of the boom. South West Queensland lies on the margins of the boom: it is not involved in the booming iron ore and coal export industries but parts of it produce petroleum, natural gas and coal seam methane. To ensure that benefits continue, it is necessary to plan for what will happen after the boom has run its course.
The present study examines the net benefits to the Australian economy of a mining boom. In light of the changed circumstances that are likely to prevail over the coming years, extrapolation of past responses to mining expansion into the future suggests that there may be little headline net per capita additional benefit. The resource claims to meet the infrastructure and service demands of the increased population induced by the current episode of mining expansion will be presented in full, creating very difficult political and economic constraints, adding to those from climate change. The situation will be compounded by the national productivity growth tending to remain below historical trend levels. However, the resource expansion could be managed differently, to maximise its net additionality. Such management would include increased harvesting of resource rents and measures to increase the domestic content of mining investment.
Remote area zone rebates or allowances have been a feature of Australian income tax since 1945 and the social security system since 1984. In 2009, the Henry report on the tax system recommended that they should be reviewed, but no action has been taken.
This paper is based on a study prepared and presented by Graham Armstrong to the Air Source Heat Pump Water Heater Asia (ASHPasia) Forum in Shanghai, China on 17 November 2012. This study draws on two main information and data sources: the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research and Saturn Corporate Resources database for projects undertaken for a range of Australian electricity and gas distributors (low voltage wires and metering responsibilities) and retailers (customer billing, energy end-use advice and liabilities under government end-use programs); and a study for the Australian and New Zealand Governments’ E3 Equipment Energy Efficiency joint initiative.
The present paper discusses the divergent conclusions of two studies: that of Abelson, ‘Evaluating Major Events and Avoiding the Mercantilist Fallacy’, published in Economic Papers, and an economic impact evaluation completed in 2005 by the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research. In this case, the conflicting results are not due to major disagreements on theory: NIEIR agrees with most of the theoretical statements in Abelson’s article. Here, disagreement arises from the application of theory, or the relevance of assumptions
In this article Peter Brain assesses the medium term outlook for both the world and Australian economies, including the importance for the latter of public sector demand and immigration as important drivers of growth.
Peter Brain assesses the Australian economy and describes alternative scenarios.