Multinet is an Australian energy company that provides gas from Melbourne’s inner eastern suburbs to middle eastern Victoria. Multinet engaged NIEIR to develop gas sales and customer number forecasts for Victoria to be submitted to the Australian Energy Regulator.  NIEIR submitted to Multinet forecasts of customer numbers and demand for their Victorian distribution networks for the 5 year period commencing 1 July 2013. Taken into consideration when developing the forecasts for gas sales and customer numbers, NIEIR considered and modeled the effects of economic growth, weather normalization, the introduction of carbon taxes, price and income elasticity, energy intensity, and new vs. existing customers.

The scope of the project was to; describe the factors affecting the demand for natural gas in Victoria; describe the methodology used to forecast gas consumption as well as the key assumptions used to prepare the forecasts; prepare an estimate of gas consumption for the financial years 2013-2017; and provide relevant commentary on the forecasts to interpret trends.

Benefit to the client

The NIEIR report provided the client with a detailed analysis of the economics of Victoria’s demand for gas and a forecast of gas for the Access Arrangement Review. The forecasts were submitted to the Australian Energy Regulator as part of the review of Multinet’s Access arrangement in each state. NIEIR’s report laid out the foundations for a more sophisticated approach in demand planning and was a guide for interpreting trends and movements in key economic variables.