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The present paper provides an overview of NIEIR’s national, state and regional modelling system. NIEIR’s forecasting methodology provides a strong and realistic basis for policy evaluation. An economic projection incorporating a policy change is compared with an otherwise similar ‘base case’ projection without the policy change. Although using general equilibrium models is exceedingly fashionable in policy analysis, based as they are on a fundamental assumption that economies can usefully be divided into autonomous markets and analysed in terms of price-mediated balances of demand and supply in each market, NIEIR’s models are significantly closer to reality. They do not assume away mathematically inconvenient aspects of the economy and, hence, are less likely to deliver counter-productive advice.
This paper reviews the global and Australian developments during the months leading to the Copenhagen COP-15 commencing 7 December 2009. As of 20 November it seemed unlikely that a consensus on emissions caps and the role of developing countries (non-Annex B) would be reached. Cuts below 1990 emissions are being sought from developed nations, as well as a slowing of emissions growth by non-Annex B nations. The investment costs to reduce emissions levels below 1990 levels will be huge. In addition, to achieve these reductions more stringent policies are required. The legislation progress and climate action developments of Australia, the USA, China, Japan, Russia, India and Canada are reviewed in the present paper.
Graham Armstrong provides an update on the Kyoto Protocol before considering several related issues. These include the differing responses to greenhouse policy by the Australian States and Territories on the one hand and the Federal Government on the other, developments in this field in the European Union, an update of the New Zealand Kyoto Target, and carbon trading in Australia.
Although definitions vary, demand side management (DSM), demand management (DM) and demand response (DR) measures generally encompass energy efficient improvement, load shifting and peak load control. Over the past five years, increasing peak load demands and regional supply shortfalls (due to one or a combination of inadequate inter-connections, generator capacity, unexpected summer load peaks) have focused DSM/DR/DM efforts on peak load control of air conditioning equipment.
Peter Brain assesses the Australian economy and describes alternative scenarios