State of the Regions: Population and Age Distribution 

Introduction to the State of the Regions reports

If the reader is not familiar with Australia’s annual State of the Regions reports (SORs), the reports divide Australia into 67 regions, describing each of these as well as benchmarking regions with each other in terms of their economic performance across a series of key economic indicators. Various agglomerations of these regions are also analysed and include a series of seven region types, which display similar characteristics in terms of their economic structure and development, each region type distinct from the other. Each of the annual SORs provide data for each region and more recently, each region type.

The analysis provided in the SORs gives important insights for all levels of government and for industry about how we understand Australia’s regions and build their economic futures. What are the risks, where are the opportunities and so on?

In this analysis we analyse the populations’ age distribution across Australia’s 67 SOR regions and summarise.

Short term population trends in Australia

Following the lifting of the COVID-19 restrictions, total net international migration into Australia was 535,000 in 2022-23. For 2023-24 the total was 446,000. In 2024-25 net international migration into Australia returned to a more long-term sustainable level of 288,000, followed by a projected 245,000 in 2025-26.

In terms of the natural increase in the population, the population is stable in absolute terms at around 105,000 per year. That is, the natural increase slowly declines as a proportion of the population. In terms of the growth in the population, the annual rate of growth will decline from 2.3 per cent in 2023-24 to 1.1 per cent in 2027-28.

Age distribution: Implications for the Economics of SOR Regions

The evolving age and population patterns shape the regional economic outlook:

• housing shortages constrain intra-state migration resulting in essential workers (health, education, emergency services) being unable to secure housing, limiting attraction capacity. Where housing shortages are particularly severe, resulting in businesses being forced to increase wages or incentives, adding operational costs and squeezing small margins.
• the flow of older people to retirement regions is encouraged where there are marked differentials in house prices between metropolitan and lifestyle regions. Retirement migration is an important source of income to recipient regions in that it supports construction activity;
• regions that have younger aged populations are likely to have greater growth capacity, workforce dynamism, and consumer market potential; older regions face challenges around health services demand, workforce renewal, and housing needs for both aged and younger groups; and
• population growth regions, whether inner-city, suburban, peri-urban, or high-amenity, require significant investment in infrastructure, schools, and services to deliver sustainable outcomes. Australia’s overall age profile continues a gradual transformation, with an aging population offset in part by high migration levels and a steady birth rate.

According to NIEIR’s analysis:

• children under 15 comprise 18.1 per cent of the national population—a slight proportional decrease from 2021. Including the additional young people up to the age of 17 (to account for compulsory schooling), the figure rises to approximately 20.4 per cent.
• young adults (18-25 years) constitute the remainder of the youngest third of the population, with a combined share (children + young adults up to 25) of nearly 33.5 per cent.
• working-age adults (26-50 years) make up about 34 per cent, reflecting both the contribution of migration in these age groups and a slightly aging native-born cohort.
• older adults (51 and over) now account for 32.5 per cent, with those aged 50-64 years comprising 15.6 per cent and those 65 and older making up 16.9 per cent. The numbers of Australians aged 80 and above continue to rise at the fastest rate of any cohort, emphasising the growing importance of aged care, health, and retirement services particularly in regional areas.

Age distribution: Regional variation

Regional population trends in Australia are far from uniform:

• capital cities have overwhelmingly absorbed new arrivals (especially from overseas) and continue to skew younger on average due to higher birth rates and concentration of university- age and working-age populations.
• regional and remote areas are on average older, reflecting both out-migration of youth and the appeal of a regional lifestyle for retirees. Certain high-growth regional centres, examples of which are the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Geelong, and Ballarat, defy this trend with strong inflows of young families alongside retirees.
• net regional migration spiked during COVID-19 restrictions, reflecting pandemic-driven lifestyle changes and the rise of work-from-home. However, data show this reversion moderating as capital city arrivals recover.

For New South Wales SOR regions, the highest population growth rates per annum for the years 2019 to 2024 were, Sydney Highlands at 3.6 per cent (Australia’s fastest growing population SOR region in the period), Sydney Outer West at 2.3 per cent and NSW Inland Hunter at 1.9 per cent. The lowest population growth rates in the period were, Sydney Central at minus 0.1 per cent (Australia’s slowest growing population region in the period once rounding is considered), Far West at minus 0.1 per cent and Sydney Outer North at 0.2 per cent.

For Victoria’s SOR regions, the highest population growth rates per annum for the years 2019 to 2024 were, 3.3 per cent in Melbourne Outer West (Australia’s second fastest growing region per annum in the period), 2.3 per cent in Melbourne Outer SE and 2.3 per cent in Melbourne Outer North. The lowest population growth rates in the period were, for Melbourne Inner East, Victoria Outer West and for Melbourne Outer S at 0.4 per cent per annum and Melbourne Inner NW at 0.3 per cent, and lowest of all, Melbourne Outer East at 0.1 per cent.

For the Queensland SOR regions, the highest population growth rates per annum for the years 2019 to 2024 were, 2.8 per cent for Country SEQ, 2.5 per cent for the Sunshine Coast, 2.5 per cent for Brisbane Outer South West. The lowest growth rate of any Queensland SOR region was Outback at 0.4 per cent per annum.

For the South Australia SOR regions, the highest population growth rates per annum for the years 2019 to 2024 were, Adelaide North and West at 1.6 per cent, the lowest growth rate was for SA Outer at 0.5 per cent.

For the Western Australia SOR regions, the highest population growth rates per annum for the years 2019 to 2024 were, Perth South Coast at 2.9 per cent, Perth South East at 2.6 per cent and WA South West at 2.1 per cent, followed closely by Perth Outer N at 2 per cent. The lowest growth rates in the period were, Gascoyne Goldfields at 0.9 per cent and Pilbara Kimberley at 0.9 per cent.

For the two Tasmanian SOR regions, Hobart South grew at 1.2 per cent per annum in the period 2019-2024 and Tas N and W at 1 per cent.

For the two NT SOR regions, the Darwin grew at 0.6 per cent per annum and Outback NT grew at a similar rate.
For the ACT SOR region, the population growth rate per annum for the years 2019 to 2024, was 1.8 per cent.

All the annual SORs, covering the period 1998 to 2025, can be downloaded free of charge from the NIEIR website as NIEIR’s contribution to the public good. In 2025, there are two SOR reports, the main report and a smaller report that ranks the SORs 67 regions. The latest reports were published in November 2025.